4. Labor market slack, continued
Estimates suggest the NAIRU shifted down in the late 1960s, up after 1970, and down in the 1990s
In 1980s, the NAIRU was probably above 7%
Estimates as recently as a year ago put it in the neighborhood of 5.0%.
Will a protracted recession cause it to rise as labor market skills among those not working depreciate
Based on labor force growth trends, full-employment job growth is estimated to be approximately 150,000 jobs per month, ± 50,000